Stephen Strasburg

Wow – over 15 million for Strasburg.  Is he worth it?  No amateur pitcher is worth that price.  Remember Brien Taylor?  Oh, that’s right, you never heard of him.  Todd Van Poppel – can’t miss, right?  First round draft picks who…weren’t worth it.

Here’s my beef.  You can sign two quality pitchers for the price paid for Strasburg.  If Washington had let the deadline pass they would’ve received a compensation pick.

Don’t get me wrong.  I’m not saying teams should avoid tough signs.  I’m saying the Nats paid too much.  Strasburg alone won’t solve the Nats’ problems.  They have a potent offense but lack pitching.

While this seems to contradict my statement about Strasburg not solving their problem it really doesn’t.  They aren’t one quality pitcher from contending.  They lack a lot of good pitchers.  Two or three quality relievers or starters would make a difference.

That’s all I’m saying.

The Manny Sweepstakes

What did the Dodgers offer Manny Ramirez?  Fifty two million over two years.  I’m sorry folks, Manny Ramirez is a fantastic hitter but he isn’t worth it.

Whhhhatttt?  Look, he is great, carried the Dodgers, blah, blah, blah.  However, would the Dodgers be better with, say, CC Sabathia and Pat Burrell?  Pat can’t duplicate Manny.  However, he and CC would do enough to more than make up for Manny’s presence.  The Dodgers with CC and Billingsley at the front of the rotation make them almost a cinch to dominate their division.  And CC wouldn’t have to pitch his usual 1,000 innings at the end of the year to get them their.

Pat Burrell isn’t Manny but will be a 25 and 100, .280 man.  The games lost because of the absence of Manny will be made up in part by Burrell and CC.

And the money is all wrong.  The economy WILL affect baseball next year and spending 26 million on one player a year is worse than spending 30 million on two.

And who is to say Manny won’t be calling Scott Boras in July to get out of LA?  I love Manny, he is a sure HOFer, even in the steroid era.  He just isn’t worth the price.

My Picks

Who will win the one game playoff: Twins.  Why?, They have heart, White Sox don’t in my opinion.  There is absolutely no reason the Twinkies are around.  But they are and one game playoffs are often won on emotion because you pull out all the stops. 

Red Sox vs. LAA:  Boston.  Why? History and hitting.  I actually grade the staffs the same though the Sox get the pub.  Top to bottom, however, the everyday lineup of the Sox is better.  Sorry Halos.

Twins/White Sox vs Rays:  Twins/White Sox.  While emotion is important in one game series, it is hard to maintain over even a short series.  Experience gives the edge to the Rays’ opponents.  A Tampa World Championship would be great, however.  Crawford being iffy for the series only makes it easier to pick against the Rays.

Dodgers vs. Cubs:  Cubs.  On paper, on the field, in the dugout, everywhere, the Cubs are better.

Brewers vs. Phillies: Brewers.  Hard to predict.  If Sheets was 100%, it would be the Brewers without question.  Two dominating pitchers in a short series would be hard to beat.  I’m going with the Brewers, however because Sabathia will take one at Philly and I like the Brewers against Moyers in game 3 regardless of who the Crew pitches.  Sabathia will win the next game he pitches after his first and it is series over.

AL MVP: Should be Pedroia, the heart and soul of the Sox.  Mauer is a close second.  Will be Pedroia.  I will go nuts if Josh Hamilton gets it.  If the Rangers had been in serious contention the whole year, maybe so, just a maybe.  He will be a hall of famer with that talent.  Just not MVP this year.

NL MVP: Should be Howard.  People go crazy negative about his average.  However, he protects everyone around him in the lineup.  Pujols is a close second.  Soto deserves consideration as well.  Howard gets the edge because the Phillies made the playoffs buts the cards would have been much, much worse without Albert.  Will be Sabathia or Manny.  I’ll go crazy if they give it to Delgado or Wright.  They made fantastic impacts but when it came down to it, the Mets choked again.  It will be Pujols.

AL Cy Young: Should be Cliff Lee.  Are you actually considering anyone else?  Cy Young is for best pitcher, not most valuable.  Rodriguez was great but Soria was actually better.  Huh?  Soria pitched one less inning, had a better ERA, gave up fewer saves and blew fewer saves.  Will he even get one Cy Young vote?  It better not go to Mussina.  Great season but not Cliff Lee’s.   It will be Lee.

NL Cy Young: Should be Linceum.  Hard to choose.  Webb, Sabathia, Dempster and more deserve it as well.  I will go nuts if they give it to Santana.  Great pitcher but not quite to the level this year of Lincecum or Sabathia.  It will be Sabathia.

AL ROY:  Should be Longoria.  He should be the man.  It will be Longoria.  I will go nuts if Joba gets one vote for the top rookie.  He will be ranked because it is New York but please, is there one writer who thinks he was the TOP rookie?  Please say it ain’t so.

NL ROY:  Should be, will be, has to be Soto.  I will go crazy if Jay Bruce gets it.  Great rookie and will be great major leaguer.  However, Soto was tops without question.  Turn in your writer’s card if you vote for anyone else.

AL Manager of the Year:  It should be Maddon.  It will be Maddon.  Gardenhire is a close second and should be given a manager of the decade award.  However, Maddons job was tougher, especially when injuries hit Longoria and Crawford.  I will go nuts if Francona gets it.

NL Manager of the Year:  It should be Charlie Manuel.  Yes, they have a great everyday lineup.  However, that pitching staff is not as good as the Cubs which is why he barely gets the nod over Piniella.  I will go insane if Dale Sveum gets a vote.

Now the fun picks.

Biggest Losers:  The Tigers.  Need I say more?

Best Story:  Josh Hamilton

Guy Who Deserved Better:  Jim Leyland

Guy Who Deserves Worse:  Scott Boras.  The Manny maneuver was just not right.

Team That Won’t Contend for 5 Years: The Braves.  Chipper can’t play a whole season, Francouer looks hopeless and McCann’s talent will be wasted.  Their everyday lineup doesn’t scare anyone.

Other Teams That, By Default, Won’t Contend for 5 Years :  Pirates, KC and the Reds just won’t spend the money to get the key pieces they need.  And when one of the “Axis of Ineptitude” does spend money it gives it to guys like Jose Guillen.

Team That Will Contend Next Year That Didn’t This Year:  The Indians.  They could’ve packed it in after losing Sabathia and didn’t.  Cliff Lee won’t surprise but expect better years from Sizemore and Garko.  That’s right, Garko.  Martinez will be better as well.

Players Likely To End Up in New York: Sabathia and Manny.  I fully believe Sabathia would go anywhere for the right money, or even less, like Boston, to contend.  However, I believe Hank Steinbrenner will pay any price for a gamer like Sabathia.  The Red Sox and Mets won’t quite put up that amount of money.  The Sox can win without him and even the Mets don’t have Yankee money.

Manny is the man for the Mets.  I’ve said before the Dodgers will shell out the money to pay Manny.  However, money talks for Scott Boras and the Mets will pay more of it for him.  And by mid-season he will complain about the New York press when he goes 0-4 with an error in a game against the Phillies.

Lets see how my picks pan out.

Took the Summer Off

Personal things took me away from this blog but lets see about my posts…

Chad Billingsley is leading the Dodgers.  Expect this for years to come.

Jon Niese is pitching for the Mets.  One out of his outings was strong.  He’s young so we’ll see how he works out.  The Mets threw him out there in the middle of a pennant race.  And that can’t be easy.  We’ll see how he adjusts.  I’m guessing that as a lefthander he will be given every chance to succeed.

Dexter Fowler played for the USA in China and did pretty well.  He’s struggling a bit in the majors after being called up.  He still has great potential, however, and will also be given every chance to succeed.

I posted about what you hear in the news not being the whole story…kinda ties to Manny and the screws he put to the Red Sox.  Here’s the problem I have with the whole trade to the Dodgers.  If he had stayed in Boston till the end of the year, the Sox (not Manny) could have exercised an option for next year.  Trading him negates that option and he becomes a free agent at the end of the year.

Well guess what folks, if he had stayed his former agent, Jeff Moorad, would have been paid a commission for next year.  If he is a free agent his new agent, Scott Boras, gets the commission for whatever contract he signs next year.

I’m sure that’s just a coincidence.

What I find ironic is that the option was for $20 million and in my opinion will not be worth that amount of money.  The Dodgers, who appear to be early leaders in the Manny sweepstakes, would be insane to pony up more than that for an extended period of time.  He’s 36, he’s Manny and the Dodgers have invested a lot of money in Andruw Jones and others.  To stay within a reasonable budget they will have to cast off a few pitchers such as Lowe.

With him they will win their division this year.  However, I suggest that they’d be better off spending that money on Sabathia or a combination of others to shore up that pitching staff.

Here’s betting they will bite on Manny.  If I had been the only one saying the Dodgers were crazy to spend that amount of money on Andruw Jones, you could say I was full of bs to say it now.  I’m not the only one now saying the Dodgers will be crazy enough to give Manny upwards of $21-$22 million.